Love this! One's bankroll management technique should include this "practical expected value" based on the trustworthiness of the entity you're betting against. My personal lesson on this was that in 2013 I bet notorious climate science denier Pat Michaels $250 (an amount he mocked as being almost too small to bother with) that we would have statistically significant warming (at the 95% confidence level) in the HadCRUTx data for the 25 year period starting in 1997.
I won, of course, and Pat was supposed to donate the $250 to the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund. I never got word that he paid. I did manage to contact a secretary of his who was quite rude when she told me that she did pass my message along to him, and that she would not respond to me further. So I think he welched.
Love this! One's bankroll management technique should include this "practical expected value" based on the trustworthiness of the entity you're betting against. My personal lesson on this was that in 2013 I bet notorious climate science denier Pat Michaels $250 (an amount he mocked as being almost too small to bother with) that we would have statistically significant warming (at the 95% confidence level) in the HadCRUTx data for the 25 year period starting in 1997.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/pat-michaels-bets-on-25-years-of-no-warming/
I won, of course, and Pat was supposed to donate the $250 to the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund. I never got word that he paid. I did manage to contact a secretary of his who was quite rude when she told me that she did pass my message along to him, and that she would not respond to me further. So I think he welched.
And then he died.
So long, asshole.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/climate/patrick-j-michaels-dead.html
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